Ebor 2012

After the excellent fare this week, today's card at York looks somewhat lob sided with 3 long distance races featuring. The highlight is the Tote Ebor over 1m 6f. This year's renewal looks even more competitive than usual, with the large purse on offer attracting plenty of interest. Changeable weather and the unpredictability of the draw, add to the confusion and will be looking to a shortlist of Icon Dream, Hurricane Higgins and Sense of Purpose (Mr Weld plying his Galway magic touch at York?) for a run and bit of luck.

Racing headlines however have been dominated by Frankel (not for the first time) following his saunter in the Juddmonte International. Not wishing to carp, but there are better horses on the circuit than those vanquished on the Knavesmire. Nevertheless, freakishly brilliant, what's next for Sir Henry's machine? The Arc? a showdown with Danedream, Nathaniel and Camelot and the opportunity to cement his place on the Pantheon?

Doubtful that he will make it to Paris, but here's hoping...

good luck..

Lockinge Stakes 2012

Looking forward to seeing Frankel return to the track today in the Lockinge at Newbury. Racing's superstar had a satisfactory racetrack gallop on Guineas Day and is fully expected to maintain his unbeaten record. However a few shrewd observers are questioning his chance. Perhaps taking into consideration his recent injury scare or the fact that his seasonal bow on this track last season was less than inspirational. However I doubt his formidable connections would be taking any risks and expect him to overcome his old rival, Excelebration now domiciled at Ballydoyle. Of more interest is what route he will take throughout the summer?

Got to see plenty of York this week and two worthy Epsom candidates emerged. The Fugue impressive in the Muisidora now heads the Oaks market but she will have her work cut out to beat whoever represents Aidan O'Brien. Bonfire did enough to justify his place in the Derby but can't see him thwarting Camelot at this stage.

Nothing stands out for a bet this afternoon so watching brief will continue ....

good luck..

New Departure?

The more things change, the more they stay the same!! Good card, decent prize, one true equine star, top track! Today's much vaunted new meeting at Ascot should herald an upsurge in Flat racing's fortunes and profile. But unsurprisingly the ill timed and cack-handed introduction of the new whip regulations with it's ensuing media coverage has undone all the good work. Cock-up or conspiracy?

Nevertheless we have an interesting card and the return of Frankel to ponder. Henry Cecil's superstar on all known evidence should prevail, but at 3s on looks too short against a decent field, including 3 Group 1 winners.

Ballydoyle's Australian import So You Think has not really lived up to the hype. Have seen him up close in the paddock and he looks a magnificent specimen. However I am not sure his powerful physique is suited to European racing where a ready turn of foot is vital at the top level. He battled in great style at Sandown, ran on well at Longchamp, but failed to find an extra here at the Royal Meeting. Expect him to run well again this afternoon in the relocated Champion Stakes, but reckon he is vulnerable to a late finisher. Obvious candidates include Cirrus Des Aigles and Dubai Prince but reckon the latter's stablemate Casamento (Group 1 winner) under the boy wonder (Mikael Barzalona) has a chance and looks under priced at 33/1.

The card also sees a cracking sprint. The quickish ground looks as if it will undermine the leading contenders and along with Ascot's penchant for sprint surprises, it might well pay to look for an outsider. Both Dafeef and Night Carnation have nice bits of form, are relatively unexposed and at current odds fit the bill.

enjoy

Boom or Bust

Today's card looks the best of a week dominated by difficult handicaps (Frankel aside). A few runners worth keeping an eye on, include Harbour Watch, who hopefully can improve further from his eyecatching run at the July meeting and the lightly raced Western Aristocrat, who showed well at Ascot but is up against it on this occasion in a competitve field.

The drop back to 7 furlongs should be very much in Maqaasid's favour and hopefully the ground will dry out a bit by 4.50pm. Have been waiting for her to reappear under favourable conditions and this just might suit.

Green Destiny was the apple of this corner's eye at York. He is attempting to add another marquee handicap to his CV today in the Totesport Mile. Not unduly penalised and with a plum draw, he looks to have every chance. However, he is likely to be very short in the betting and going to go for a bit of value (Betfair 25s) with the possibly unexposed Marcus Tregonning runner, Boom and Bust.

good luck...

Frankely Fantastic

Fabulous display by Frankel at Goodwood yesterday. Reminiscent of his sire Galileo, when he glided through the gears at Tom Queally's request. Great show and great to hear that he may stay in training. Undoubtedly the racing highlight of the summer!!

Nothing of that calibre today and still waiting to have a bet. However, Noble Storm looks interesting in the King George Stakes over 5 furlongs. It is a tight contest but Ed McMahon's progressive five year old should go close in a race, where his stablemate Astrophysical Jet was a tad unfortunate last year.

good luck....

Tread Warily

Goodwood and Galway are upon us with their bounty of summer temptations. Best advice is to tread warily and avoid being sucked in. The main talking point is the match up (Sussex Stakes Weds.) between Canford Cliffs and Frankel. Who wins? Who knows? Too many imponderables and variables to be sure! However, hopefully we will have an epic contest without any of Saturday's dramatics (still ruminating over a very unsatisfactory King George). Both colts have excelled so far this season and in a four runner field it might come down to jockeymanship.

The supporting races for Goodwood's first two days are as normal competitive and while there are no obvious bets, looking forward to to seeing if any key form patterns emerge with the latter half of the season in mind. In particular the Gordon Stakes should shed light on the Leger and both the Molecomb and Vintage Stakes move the 2 year old sphere up a level.

As for the week long party in Galway, enjoy watching the big races but strictly a punt free zone unless you have been well advised.

good luck....

Fame or Glory?

Neither methinks for Ballydoyle's latest putative successor to four time Ascot Gold Cup winner Yeats. Very doubtful in my eyes, that he will stay the extreme distance and at 2/1 is an obvious lay. The remainder of the card is rather uninspiring, but Michael Owen's, Brown Panther, who won recently at Haydock, showing bundles of potential, is worth monitoring in the last. Ditto Marksmanship (won decent Curragh maiden) in the Tercentenary Stakes.

The temporary lull offers an opportunity to reflect on the talking points so far. Yesterday saw Canford Cliffs beat Goldikova in an excellent Queen Anne. An accomplished effort by horse and rider who appeared to win with a bit in hand. Will he get his chance to tackle St. James Palace Stakes victor Frankel? Did we learn anything from his somewhat strange showing. Initial reaction was that Tom Queally's tactical manoeuvring caused his alarming deceleration but it was later reported that he reached Swinley Bottom before pulling up (hardly the actions of a weary horse). Sir Henry looked perplexed afterwards and we will have to wait and see how goes next time. An interesting analysis can found here (http://www.theirishfield.ie/site/article.php?id=318&cid=1). Where ever he shows up, he won't be winning if he does not settle and race normally.

Poorly excecuted tactics were also partly responsible for So You Think's demise, when he was caught late by Rewilding, who benefited from a determined Dettori drive. It was good to see that Godolphin's competitiveness seems to have been reawakened with Sheikh Mohammed looking particularly pleased during the post race interviews (credit to Racing Post race reader for spotting Debussy's role). Despite all, my pocket is still peeved following Aidan O'Brien's admission that he did not have him fully tuned for a Group 1 race at Royal Ascot!!!!. Nevertheless, SYT ought to improve and it sets up a very interesting middle-distance season.

cheers....

Super Milers

Royal Ascot starts powerfully today with the clash in the Queen Anne Stakes (Gr.1) of the super milers, Goldikova and Canford Cliffs. While one ought to be mindful of the conditions due to the recent rain, Ascot generally handles precipitation well and an exciting clash is expected. Goldikova has a superb record but the vote goes to Canford on the basis of his younger legs.

Day One's undoubted attraction is 2,000 Guineas winner, Frankel, in the St James Palace Stakes (Gr.1). Can he improve on that mind blowing run? One expects so, as he handled the track well when winning the Royal Lodge last season. There a few interesting other runners, but he can't be seriously opposed.

The third Group 1 of the afternoon is the Kings Stand over 5f. The international dimension makes it very difficult to assess but one of this corner's favourites, Astrophysical Jet, should have a squeak and if there is further rainfall, long shot Arctic might be worth a small interest.

The day rounds off with a pair of very competitive 2 year old contests. The Hannon and O'Brien yards are usually to the fore in this sphere, but Jeremy Noseda has a nice sort in Roman Soldier (Coventry). The Windsor Castle is best watched.

enjoy and good luck...

Trials Time

As it is unlikely, that Frankel will be heading to Epsom, this year's trials take on added significance. It is doubtful that we saw a contender at Chester this week and today's Derby trial at Lingfield looks undistinguished, although interested to see how Marahaba Mayloon runs. We should learn more tomorrow from the Derrinstown at Leopardstown, if Recital settles better, but perhaps the most informative race will be the Dante at York on Thursday. The Oaks picture looks equally opaque albeit, Wonder of Wonders did well on the Roodee.

Despite a busy day, winners look hard to find making it a watching, rather than playing afternoon. The early season notebook brief will be monitoring Bated Breadth (again) + Victoire de Lyphar, Passion for Gold (long absent), Bourne (Haydock), and Berling.

However, a particular focus will be on the Victoria Cup at Ascot, with a view to the forthcoming series of 7 furlong handicaps on the track over the season. Competitive as ever, going to go with two from either side of the draw, Lutine Bell and Zero Money.

Across the ocean, the Kentucky Derby rounds off a full day. Uncle Mo's absence takes the shine of this year's renewal but curious to see how Master of the Hounds runs for Ballydoyle after his unusual prep at Meydan (globalisation indeed).

good luck...

Frankel; Freak of Nature

Racing scribes were in diffculty articulating Frankel's spellbinding victory. I have never seen anything like it in watching over 30 years of Newmarket's Classic mile and one wonders what's next!!. Will he stay at Epsom? Time will tell, but seeing as he broke all the rules yesterday, it must be worth pursuing!

Today 1000 Guineas, however looks a much more open affair. The varying strands of form are difficult to assess but going to plump for Ballydoyle's, Misty for Me. Twice a Group One winner last term she looks as she if will be better over further, but her form is as good as any on offer in a tight race.If not successful this afternoon, she ought to be worth following through the season.

Another filly, worth watching is Roger Charlton's, Primevere in the Pretty Polly. Nicely bred and showed ability on her only outing winning in a fast time.

good luck...

Frankel; Fast or Furious?

Today's 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket sees another in a long line of hotpots putting their reputation on the line. There can be no doubting Frankel's credentials but following an interesting article in the Guardian this week, one might be tempted to question his temperament. Gallop watchers described him as a ball of fire and there must be a possibility of him boiling over and not performing.

The market however, appears to suffer no doubts about his chance, but many similar types have previously succumbed to the pressure. Under the care of the legendary and masterful Henry Cecil, I think he will prevail but not without a struggle. He is up against three Group 1 winners of which, Pathfork looks best suited to the conditions and it is Mrs Harrington's charge who may provide him with the sternest test. From a betting perspective, I have already backed Pathfork, but at this stage, Saamid (if forgiving him his Dewhurst flop) looks the best value.

Otherwise on a good card, one of last season's friends, Astrophysical Jet returns and looking forward to following her throughout the season. Finally, perhaps the most informative race of the day will be the Ganay at Longchamp where Cape Blanco, Sarafina and Planteur do battle.

enjoy....

Frankel brings Flat to the Fore

The Flat season comes to the fore this week. We have already had the Craven meeting and Frankel's seasonal debut in the Greenham today at Newbury moves things up a notch. Last year's top juvenile should get a good test today from Strong Suit, but it's very difficult to see him being beaten en route to the 2,000 Guineas. The Fillies trial (Fred Darling) looks much more open. However, it's unlikely, that we will see the 1,000 winner, but french import Pontenouvo might be worth a close look. Along with the Spring Cup, the meeting should make for interesting viewing, but going to mark the onset of the new season with a trip to Naas, where amongst others, old friend Inxile runs in the feature (will report on anything notable).

The NH season is beginning to wind down with the first of three staying handicap chases, the Scottish Grand National at Ayr. Poker De Sivola for Ferdy Murphy & Graham Lee must have solid claims (appears to have been laid out for this in typical fashion) and another old friend Lothian Falcon (good second last time) is worth a small bet at long odds.

good luck....

Dewhurst Decider

The Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket today looks likely to be the best race of the flat season with 3 potential superstars taking each other on. Frankel so far has looked outstanding but has yet to meet a horse of any calibre. Nevertheless, he looked frighteningly good when coming round the bend at Ascot to bolt clear in the Royal Lodge. The manner of Dream Ahead's victory in the Middle Park was almost freakish but the conditions may have accentuated the winning distance. Despite already winning two group 1s, he will go off second favourite with doubts about ground and distance bringing out the best in him. The third protagonist, Saamid is coming into the race slightly under the radar, due to the hype over Frankel. Godolphin obviously rate him highly following a promising performance at Doncaster and he is the one who may be most comfortable over 7 furlongs. Hopefully, we will have a cracking contest and the beginning of stellar careers. While a bet is not really necessary, it will be difficult to desist if Saamid drifts to 7s or bigger.

The remainder of Champions Day is equally intriguing with a high class and competitive card. However, with winners looking hard to find, particularly at this stage of the season, I am opting for a relaxing afternoon with a sporting yankee and a speculative wager on Alwaary in the Champion Stakes

Yankee: Saamid, Vision D'Etat, Deauville Flyer + Rumoush.

good luck and enjoy....