Ebor 2012

After the excellent fare this week, today's card at York looks somewhat lob sided with 3 long distance races featuring. The highlight is the Tote Ebor over 1m 6f. This year's renewal looks even more competitive than usual, with the large purse on offer attracting plenty of interest. Changeable weather and the unpredictability of the draw, add to the confusion and will be looking to a shortlist of Icon Dream, Hurricane Higgins and Sense of Purpose (Mr Weld plying his Galway magic touch at York?) for a run and bit of luck.

Racing headlines however have been dominated by Frankel (not for the first time) following his saunter in the Juddmonte International. Not wishing to carp, but there are better horses on the circuit than those vanquished on the Knavesmire. Nevertheless, freakishly brilliant, what's next for Sir Henry's machine? The Arc? a showdown with Danedream, Nathaniel and Camelot and the opportunity to cement his place on the Pantheon?

Doubtful that he will make it to Paris, but here's hoping...

good luck..

New Departure?

The more things change, the more they stay the same!! Good card, decent prize, one true equine star, top track! Today's much vaunted new meeting at Ascot should herald an upsurge in Flat racing's fortunes and profile. But unsurprisingly the ill timed and cack-handed introduction of the new whip regulations with it's ensuing media coverage has undone all the good work. Cock-up or conspiracy?

Nevertheless we have an interesting card and the return of Frankel to ponder. Henry Cecil's superstar on all known evidence should prevail, but at 3s on looks too short against a decent field, including 3 Group 1 winners.

Ballydoyle's Australian import So You Think has not really lived up to the hype. Have seen him up close in the paddock and he looks a magnificent specimen. However I am not sure his powerful physique is suited to European racing where a ready turn of foot is vital at the top level. He battled in great style at Sandown, ran on well at Longchamp, but failed to find an extra here at the Royal Meeting. Expect him to run well again this afternoon in the relocated Champion Stakes, but reckon he is vulnerable to a late finisher. Obvious candidates include Cirrus Des Aigles and Dubai Prince but reckon the latter's stablemate Casamento (Group 1 winner) under the boy wonder (Mikael Barzalona) has a chance and looks under priced at 33/1.

The card also sees a cracking sprint. The quickish ground looks as if it will undermine the leading contenders and along with Ascot's penchant for sprint surprises, it might well pay to look for an outsider. Both Dafeef and Night Carnation have nice bits of form, are relatively unexposed and at current odds fit the bill.

enjoy

Awaiting the Dawn

York's eagerly anticipated Ebor meeting starts today on the Knavesmire with an oddly shaped Juddmonte International. It looks more like Team Cecil versus Team Ballydoyle but Aidan O'Brien's highly progressive Await the Dawn is of great interest. On an upward career path, he tackles his first Group One this afternoon. Although tackling two doughty campaigners (Midday + Twice Over), his performances to date suggest he is top class and should win this en route to Kentucky.

The Voltigeur also sees an unexposed sort in Sir Michael Stoute's Sea Moon. This late developer needed Ryan Moore's expertise last time but should have improved enough to land the spoils.

enjoy....

Fame or Glory?

Neither methinks for Ballydoyle's latest putative successor to four time Ascot Gold Cup winner Yeats. Very doubtful in my eyes, that he will stay the extreme distance and at 2/1 is an obvious lay. The remainder of the card is rather uninspiring, but Michael Owen's, Brown Panther, who won recently at Haydock, showing bundles of potential, is worth monitoring in the last. Ditto Marksmanship (won decent Curragh maiden) in the Tercentenary Stakes.

The temporary lull offers an opportunity to reflect on the talking points so far. Yesterday saw Canford Cliffs beat Goldikova in an excellent Queen Anne. An accomplished effort by horse and rider who appeared to win with a bit in hand. Will he get his chance to tackle St. James Palace Stakes victor Frankel? Did we learn anything from his somewhat strange showing. Initial reaction was that Tom Queally's tactical manoeuvring caused his alarming deceleration but it was later reported that he reached Swinley Bottom before pulling up (hardly the actions of a weary horse). Sir Henry looked perplexed afterwards and we will have to wait and see how goes next time. An interesting analysis can found here (http://www.theirishfield.ie/site/article.php?id=318&cid=1). Where ever he shows up, he won't be winning if he does not settle and race normally.

Poorly excecuted tactics were also partly responsible for So You Think's demise, when he was caught late by Rewilding, who benefited from a determined Dettori drive. It was good to see that Godolphin's competitiveness seems to have been reawakened with Sheikh Mohammed looking particularly pleased during the post race interviews (credit to Racing Post race reader for spotting Debussy's role). Despite all, my pocket is still peeved following Aidan O'Brien's admission that he did not have him fully tuned for a Group 1 race at Royal Ascot!!!!. Nevertheless, SYT ought to improve and it sets up a very interesting middle-distance season.

cheers....

Frankel; Fast or Furious?

Today's 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket sees another in a long line of hotpots putting their reputation on the line. There can be no doubting Frankel's credentials but following an interesting article in the Guardian this week, one might be tempted to question his temperament. Gallop watchers described him as a ball of fire and there must be a possibility of him boiling over and not performing.

The market however, appears to suffer no doubts about his chance, but many similar types have previously succumbed to the pressure. Under the care of the legendary and masterful Henry Cecil, I think he will prevail but not without a struggle. He is up against three Group 1 winners of which, Pathfork looks best suited to the conditions and it is Mrs Harrington's charge who may provide him with the sternest test. From a betting perspective, I have already backed Pathfork, but at this stage, Saamid (if forgiving him his Dewhurst flop) looks the best value.

Otherwise on a good card, one of last season's friends, Astrophysical Jet returns and looking forward to following her throughout the season. Finally, perhaps the most informative race of the day will be the Ganay at Longchamp where Cape Blanco, Sarafina and Planteur do battle.

enjoy....

Twice Over possible value in an intriguing International Stakes!

The International Stakes is the feature of Day 1 of the Ebor Meeting at York. The four main challengers all have solid claims but Twice Over currently available in places at 5/1, looks the value bet. He seems sure to be placed and with 9 runners could be a tempting free each way wager. However it is a tight field with Rip Van Winkle heading the market. While long being a fan, I feel Rip's best performances have come on undulating tracks (Sandown, Goodwood and Epsom) and he may not prosper on York's straight. Byword looks to be a similar standard to Twice Over (based on Royal Ascot form) but is nearly half the price. Dick Turpin is the season's most admirable performer but his breeding suggests he won't stay. Cavalryman looks best of outsiders but he will need to improve markedly on recent runs. In a race definitely worth watching, if not playing in, a tentative vote goes to the Henry Cecil charge.

The Voltigeur looks to be between the big 2 (Ballydoyle + Godolphin) and expect Rewidling to prevail whilst establishing St. Leger pecking order.

enjoy.....

Summer Hols

Last posting for a few weeks as one is heading off on an overdue break. Pity that it means forsaking Epsom, but very much a price worth paying. I had intended on placing an ante post before embarking, but mixed messages from Ballydoyle have tempered my enthusiasm. Johnny Murtagh's quandary is eminently understandable following Jan Vermeer's impressive seasonal bow last Sunday. That was an excellent showing, cementing his Group 1 win in France last autumn and he will be very hard to oppose if turning up next week. However, despite gloomy reports during the week and his disappointing run in the Guineas, St Nicholas Abbey based on his run at Doncaster can hardly be dismissed if making it to Surrey on the day (albeit one would expect better odds than those currently available). Workforce also merits a mention. Sir Michael Stoute's skill will insure that he will improve greatly following the Dante, but a slight doubt persists about his ability to handle Epsom's cambers.

The Oaks looks much more open but going to heed another master trainer's advice and go with Timepiece. Henry Cecil knows an awful lot more than I do and I suspect, Tom Queally. A small stake double, on Jan Vermeer & Timepiece should suffice!

By the way, interested to see how Layla's Hero (did us a favour last season) runs for a new trainer at Haydock today.

until next time......

Lockinge '10

Today's feature is the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. Paco Boy, based on his Sandown run, looks hard to oppose, but recalling his flop in this last season, he looks poor value at 10/11. Zacinto certainly has the potential to win (second to Rip Van Winkle in the QE11) but at the prices would like to suggest Lord Shanakill as a value bet (14/1). A group 1 winner last season, he is now with a top trainer (Henry Cecil), whose horses are currently running very well. It is also worthwhile keeping an eye on the 3yo handicap (London Cup) as this is usually very informative. The top three in the market all look to have considerable potential with Right Step, possibly a better price on the day.

The quick ground during the week at York resulted in lots of exciting racing with Rainbow Peak and Showcasing entering the notebook. I am not sure if the Dante brought any clarity into the Derby picture. The winner looks capable but definitely the stable's second string if Murtagh and O'Brien's comments are to be taken at face value, while Workforce looks as he if will come on a lot, but maybe not in time.

cheers......

Post Cheltenham Blues

Despite my best intentions, could not resist a look at today's NH cards. Finding little of interest aside from Rare Bob running in a decent chase at Navan (5.05), my eyes were drawn to the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster. Not the race it used to be, but could not help but notice a notebook horse from last season, Prime Exhibit, running for a new stable (Richard Fahey). Well drawn, bottom weight, improving claimer on board and having the benefit of a primer over 6f, he looks to have a good chance at a good price!

Whilst temporarily moving onto a flat groove, a cursory look at Meydan seemed in order. The large prize money has inevitably attracted a lot of high profile horses (excepting any from Ballydoyle) and has resulted in competitive fields. Intrigued to see Henry Cecil running Twice Over in the "World Cup" and if maintaining his form, he should be thereabouts. Sheikh Mohammed certainly deserves support for his investment but one wonders if the meeting will have an impact on the quality of the forthcoming summer flat season.

good luck....