The more things change, the more they stay the same!! Good card, decent prize, one true equine star, top track! Today's much vaunted new meeting at Ascot should herald an upsurge in Flat racing's fortunes and profile. But unsurprisingly the ill timed and cack-handed introduction of the new whip regulations with it's ensuing media coverage has undone all the good work. Cock-up or conspiracy?
Nevertheless we have an interesting card and the return of Frankel to ponder. Henry Cecil's superstar on all known evidence should prevail, but at 3s on looks too short against a decent field, including 3 Group 1 winners.
Ballydoyle's Australian import So You Think has not really lived up to the hype. Have seen him up close in the paddock and he looks a magnificent specimen. However I am not sure his powerful physique is suited to European racing where a ready turn of foot is vital at the top level. He battled in great style at Sandown, ran on well at Longchamp, but failed to find an extra here at the Royal Meeting. Expect him to run well again this afternoon in the relocated Champion Stakes, but reckon he is vulnerable to a late finisher. Obvious candidates include Cirrus Des Aigles and Dubai Prince but reckon the latter's stablemate Casamento (Group 1 winner) under the boy wonder (Mikael Barzalona) has a chance and looks under priced at 33/1.
The card also sees a cracking sprint. The quickish ground looks as if it will undermine the leading contenders and along with Ascot's penchant for sprint surprises, it might well pay to look for an outsider. Both Dafeef and Night Carnation have nice bits of form, are relatively unexposed and at current odds fit the bill.
enjoy
Showing posts with label Mikael Barzalona. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mikael Barzalona. Show all posts
Saturday, October 15, 2011
Saturday, June 4, 2011
Epsom Jockey Factor
One of racing's big days today, with Epsom's idiosyncrasies challenging not only the thoroughbred but equally the men on board. As evidenced by Johnny Murtagh's clever winning ride in yesterday's Oaks, the man on top can make all the difference. One wonders what Mr Murtagh makes of his intended mount's (Native Khan), owners trip to the Law Court, but I doubt if the horse will be in anyway hindered by having the Group One maestro in the saddle. Lining up at the start alongside him, will be a selection of the best pilots available; Ryan Moore (top man), Kieren Fallon (3 time winner), Frankie (not at his best yesterday), and from across the channel, the excellent Christophe Lemaire, the unpredictable Soumillon and rising star, Mikael Barzalona. One is very much looking forward to see how this aspect of the contest goes.
Nevertheless, there is little that can be done without a good conveyance and this year's Derby sees an interesting, if unproven field. The Queen's Carlton House has been favourite since prevailing in the Dante and has hogged the headlines this week with his ankle sprain. Consequently he has drifted in the betting to an almost attractive 5/2. Time will tell if that's value, but despite having the strongest connections and believing that he will stay, I doubt if this is his optimum trip. Ballydoyle send their two big guns with Soumillion somewhat surprisingly still on board Seville, who underperformed at York. His Racing Post Trophy form entitles him to be thereabouts but prefer the chances of Recital, particularly if Fallon makes it to the track. His two runs at Leopardstown suggest a colt of high ability and with his turn of foot, he should go close, if maturing a tad.
France has strangely failed to have a winner since 1976 and this year, two of their leading trainers (Andre Fabre + Alain De Royer-Dupre) are involved. Both have chances but I am siding with the stats as Pour Moi is unlikely to find the time to unleash a long run and Vadamar's breeding suggests he would appreciate softer conditions.
The aforementioned Native Khan is best of the rest. Although he appears solid place material, he will probably find one too good, when it matters. Godolphin's Ocean War does not look good enough and I can't understand why they are going to Chantilly on Sunday (and not here) with Casamento (perhaps a good omen). In summary, going with the classiest horse, Recital, who hopefully will the have the strong and capable jockey (Kieren Fallon) that he needs, handling the reins.
The remainder of the card pales in comparison but going to have a stab at the Dash with Oldjoesaid.
good luck and enjoy....
Nevertheless, there is little that can be done without a good conveyance and this year's Derby sees an interesting, if unproven field. The Queen's Carlton House has been favourite since prevailing in the Dante and has hogged the headlines this week with his ankle sprain. Consequently he has drifted in the betting to an almost attractive 5/2. Time will tell if that's value, but despite having the strongest connections and believing that he will stay, I doubt if this is his optimum trip. Ballydoyle send their two big guns with Soumillion somewhat surprisingly still on board Seville, who underperformed at York. His Racing Post Trophy form entitles him to be thereabouts but prefer the chances of Recital, particularly if Fallon makes it to the track. His two runs at Leopardstown suggest a colt of high ability and with his turn of foot, he should go close, if maturing a tad.
France has strangely failed to have a winner since 1976 and this year, two of their leading trainers (Andre Fabre + Alain De Royer-Dupre) are involved. Both have chances but I am siding with the stats as Pour Moi is unlikely to find the time to unleash a long run and Vadamar's breeding suggests he would appreciate softer conditions.
The aforementioned Native Khan is best of the rest. Although he appears solid place material, he will probably find one too good, when it matters. Godolphin's Ocean War does not look good enough and I can't understand why they are going to Chantilly on Sunday (and not here) with Casamento (perhaps a good omen). In summary, going with the classiest horse, Recital, who hopefully will the have the strong and capable jockey (Kieren Fallon) that he needs, handling the reins.
The remainder of the card pales in comparison but going to have a stab at the Dash with Oldjoesaid.
good luck and enjoy....
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