Everything points to Camelot winning this year's Derby. Form, breeding and connections suggest that the 2,000 Guineas winner looks home and hosed with the only possible chink in his armour being his ability to handle quick going at Epsom. Too short for a bet at 4/6, it may be worth considering playing the winning distance market, as his Stallion fees would be boosted by a spectacular performance. Alternatively the field of nine runners make an each way wager attractive and the underrated Thought Worthy could offer some value.
enjoy......
Showing posts with label 2000 Guineas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2000 Guineas. Show all posts
Saturday, June 2, 2012
Saturday, May 5, 2012
Guineas Weekend 2012
Intriguing renewal of the 2,000 Guineas this afternoon at Newmarket. Plenty of potentially high class colts go to post in what promises to be an informative, but difficult to call contest. Therefore going to focus on how five of the eighteen runners will fare rather than attempting to identify a winner. Here goes:
1) Camelot could well take this en route to the Derby but he is bred for further and represents poor value at current odds (may well be a different story at Epsom however).
2) Power acquitted himself well as a 2 year old but two defeats at Group 1 level suggest he may not be good enough for this and being by Oasis Dancer, could well turn out to be a July Cup candidate.
3) Born to Sea has very strong connections and is priced accordingly. However John Oxx will have him ready for a good run and expect better to come at the Curragh and Royal Ascot.
4) Top Story has only one run (albeit very promising) under his belt. Doubts about the going lessen his chances but he will definitely come on for the experience.
5) Fencing has little chance against Camelot on the book, but his trainer is a master at bringing colts on from these tests and he is one who could progress nicely over the season.
The French contingent are also worth noting particularly with the first three from the Djebel running-Abtaal is probably best of these.
All in all, a race to savour and study. For a bet, will hope to get Born to Sea at 10s or higher, with the summer more in mind than today.
The 1,000 Guineas on Sunday is much more straightforward. Maybe was a top class 2 year old and assuming she has trained on, she will take all the beating in a lop sided contest. One for the watching brief is The Fugue trained by John Gosden.
enjoy....
1) Camelot could well take this en route to the Derby but he is bred for further and represents poor value at current odds (may well be a different story at Epsom however).
2) Power acquitted himself well as a 2 year old but two defeats at Group 1 level suggest he may not be good enough for this and being by Oasis Dancer, could well turn out to be a July Cup candidate.
3) Born to Sea has very strong connections and is priced accordingly. However John Oxx will have him ready for a good run and expect better to come at the Curragh and Royal Ascot.
4) Top Story has only one run (albeit very promising) under his belt. Doubts about the going lessen his chances but he will definitely come on for the experience.
5) Fencing has little chance against Camelot on the book, but his trainer is a master at bringing colts on from these tests and he is one who could progress nicely over the season.
The French contingent are also worth noting particularly with the first three from the Djebel running-Abtaal is probably best of these.
All in all, a race to savour and study. For a bet, will hope to get Born to Sea at 10s or higher, with the summer more in mind than today.
The 1,000 Guineas on Sunday is much more straightforward. Maybe was a top class 2 year old and assuming she has trained on, she will take all the beating in a lop sided contest. One for the watching brief is The Fugue trained by John Gosden.
enjoy....
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Sprint Saturday
A veritable feast of racing today with the action coming thick and fast at four grade 1 tracks, Goodwood, Haydock, York and the Curragh. Sprinting is definitely the order of the day and while it should be exciting viewing, it also makes for perilous punting. Thus going to sit back and relax with a cross track sporting yankee; Parisian Pyramid (Goodwood 2.15), Sole Power (Haydock 3.00), Arctic (Curragh 3.10) and Waffle (York 3.40).
The Guineas series moves to Ireland with the 2,000 at the Curragh. A rather modest field but still difficult to call. Dubawi Gold is entitled to be favourite but could find one too good in Dunboyne Express. Planning to attend the 1,000 on Sunday, but this stage, reckon Chrysanthemum is good value. She appears a very likely Pricewise candidate, so therefore it may be worthwhile placing a bet today, rather than waiting for reduced odds tomorrow, particularly with the rain on it's way.
Enjoy.....
The Guineas series moves to Ireland with the 2,000 at the Curragh. A rather modest field but still difficult to call. Dubawi Gold is entitled to be favourite but could find one too good in Dunboyne Express. Planning to attend the 1,000 on Sunday, but this stage, reckon Chrysanthemum is good value. She appears a very likely Pricewise candidate, so therefore it may be worthwhile placing a bet today, rather than waiting for reduced odds tomorrow, particularly with the rain on it's way.
Enjoy.....
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Frankel; Freak of Nature
Racing scribes were in diffculty articulating Frankel's spellbinding victory. I have never seen anything like it in watching over 30 years of Newmarket's Classic mile and one wonders what's next!!. Will he stay at Epsom? Time will tell, but seeing as he broke all the rules yesterday, it must be worth pursuing!
Today 1000 Guineas, however looks a much more open affair. The varying strands of form are difficult to assess but going to plump for Ballydoyle's, Misty for Me. Twice a Group One winner last term she looks as she if will be better over further, but her form is as good as any on offer in a tight race.If not successful this afternoon, she ought to be worth following through the season.
Another filly, worth watching is Roger Charlton's, Primevere in the Pretty Polly. Nicely bred and showed ability on her only outing winning in a fast time.
good luck...
Today 1000 Guineas, however looks a much more open affair. The varying strands of form are difficult to assess but going to plump for Ballydoyle's, Misty for Me. Twice a Group One winner last term she looks as she if will be better over further, but her form is as good as any on offer in a tight race.If not successful this afternoon, she ought to be worth following through the season.
Another filly, worth watching is Roger Charlton's, Primevere in the Pretty Polly. Nicely bred and showed ability on her only outing winning in a fast time.
good luck...
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Frankel; Fast or Furious?
Today's 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket sees another in a long line of hotpots putting their reputation on the line. There can be no doubting Frankel's credentials but following an interesting article in the Guardian this week, one might be tempted to question his temperament. Gallop watchers described him as a ball of fire and there must be a possibility of him boiling over and not performing.
The market however, appears to suffer no doubts about his chance, but many similar types have previously succumbed to the pressure. Under the care of the legendary and masterful Henry Cecil, I think he will prevail but not without a struggle. He is up against three Group 1 winners of which, Pathfork looks best suited to the conditions and it is Mrs Harrington's charge who may provide him with the sternest test. From a betting perspective, I have already backed Pathfork, but at this stage, Saamid (if forgiving him his Dewhurst flop) looks the best value.
Otherwise on a good card, one of last season's friends, Astrophysical Jet returns and looking forward to following her throughout the season. Finally, perhaps the most informative race of the day will be the Ganay at Longchamp where Cape Blanco, Sarafina and Planteur do battle.
enjoy....
The market however, appears to suffer no doubts about his chance, but many similar types have previously succumbed to the pressure. Under the care of the legendary and masterful Henry Cecil, I think he will prevail but not without a struggle. He is up against three Group 1 winners of which, Pathfork looks best suited to the conditions and it is Mrs Harrington's charge who may provide him with the sternest test. From a betting perspective, I have already backed Pathfork, but at this stage, Saamid (if forgiving him his Dewhurst flop) looks the best value.
Otherwise on a good card, one of last season's friends, Astrophysical Jet returns and looking forward to following her throughout the season. Finally, perhaps the most informative race of the day will be the Ganay at Longchamp where Cape Blanco, Sarafina and Planteur do battle.
enjoy....
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Frankel brings Flat to the Fore
The Flat season comes to the fore this week. We have already had the Craven meeting and Frankel's seasonal debut in the Greenham today at Newbury moves things up a notch. Last year's top juvenile should get a good test today from Strong Suit, but it's very difficult to see him being beaten en route to the 2,000 Guineas. The Fillies trial (Fred Darling) looks much more open. However, it's unlikely, that we will see the 1,000 winner, but french import Pontenouvo might be worth a close look. Along with the Spring Cup, the meeting should make for interesting viewing, but going to mark the onset of the new season with a trip to Naas, where amongst others, old friend Inxile runs in the feature (will report on anything notable).
The NH season is beginning to wind down with the first of three staying handicap chases, the Scottish Grand National at Ayr. Poker De Sivola for Ferdy Murphy & Graham Lee must have solid claims (appears to have been laid out for this in typical fashion) and another old friend Lothian Falcon (good second last time) is worth a small bet at long odds.
good luck....
The NH season is beginning to wind down with the first of three staying handicap chases, the Scottish Grand National at Ayr. Poker De Sivola for Ferdy Murphy & Graham Lee must have solid claims (appears to have been laid out for this in typical fashion) and another old friend Lothian Falcon (good second last time) is worth a small bet at long odds.
good luck....
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Guineas Weekend
The first classic of the season, the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, is today's highlight. The form book and sustained market support suggest St. Nicholas Abbey will win comfortably. His win in the Racing Post clearly illustrated his ability and it is now a question of whether he has trained on and more pertinently, will he be fully ready on the day, as it would appear The Derby is his primary target. There is a question mark over his stamina for 12 furlongs with his breeding suggesting that 10 furlongs will be his optimum trip. Nonetheless, he showed enough speed at Doncaster and looks very hard to oppose this afternoon. For punting purposes however, evens or 5/4 look unappetising in a 19 runner field and I tentatively put Xtension forward as a value bet (currently 22/1). I had the pleasure of attending the Dewhurst and this one finished close whilst never being overridden. The Guineas also has a habit of having a highly priced placed horse and Fair Trade may be a candidate for this role.
Elsewhere on the card, Sole Power (recent winner) has place claims in the Palace House and Wigmore Hall should back up his recent eyecatching track win.
On Sunday, the fillies take centre stage in the 1000 Guineas. Special Duty is a worthy favourite in an open looking contest. Her Morny form suggests she is well ahead of the field and if improving from her uninspiring seasonal bow, will take all the beating. However it is probably best to wait see how much rain materialises.
good luck....
Elsewhere on the card, Sole Power (recent winner) has place claims in the Palace House and Wigmore Hall should back up his recent eyecatching track win.
On Sunday, the fillies take centre stage in the 1000 Guineas. Special Duty is a worthy favourite in an open looking contest. Her Morny form suggests she is well ahead of the field and if improving from her uninspiring seasonal bow, will take all the beating. However it is probably best to wait see how much rain materialises.
good luck....
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