Guineas Weekend 2012

Intriguing renewal of the 2,000 Guineas this afternoon at Newmarket. Plenty of potentially high class colts go to post in what promises to be an informative, but difficult to call contest. Therefore going to focus on how five of the eighteen runners will fare rather than attempting to identify a winner. Here goes:

1) Camelot could well take this en route to the Derby but he is bred for further and represents poor value at current odds (may well be a different story at Epsom however).

2) Power acquitted himself well as a 2 year old but two defeats at Group 1 level suggest he may not be good enough for this and being by Oasis Dancer, could well turn out to be a July Cup candidate.

3) Born to Sea has very strong connections and is priced accordingly. However John Oxx will have him ready for a good run and expect better to come at the Curragh and Royal Ascot.

4) Top Story has only one run (albeit very promising) under his belt. Doubts about the going lessen his chances but he will definitely come on for the experience.

5) Fencing has little chance against Camelot on the book, but his trainer is a master at bringing colts on from these tests and he is one who could progress nicely over the season.

The French contingent are also worth noting particularly with the first three from the Djebel running-Abtaal is probably best of these.

All in all, a race to savour and study. For a bet, will hope to get Born to Sea at 10s or higher, with the summer more in mind than today.

The 1,000 Guineas on Sunday is much more straightforward. Maybe was a top class 2 year old and assuming she has trained on, she will take all the beating in a lop sided contest. One for the watching brief is The Fugue trained by John Gosden.

enjoy....

Rain stops Play???

Since her gallant place showing in the 1,000 Guineas, Maqaasid has been this corner's nap for Royal Ascot 2011. This is premised on the fact that she would enjoy good (quick) going, her trainer's (John Gosden) penchant for gradual improvement and the Newmarket run demonstrating she would just about stay the mile. The Royal meeting is notable for repeat winners (like Cheltenham!!) and her winning run in last year's Queen Mary suggests she is the most talented filly in the race, as all three Guineas winners are absent.

Unfortunately, the one possible fly in the ointment has materialised; Rain. She did not relish it in the Cheveley Park and my enthusiasm is somewhat tempered after seeing how the track rode yesterday (soft side of good). She will probably cope with good, but any sign of "soft" in the official going report probably means we will have to wait for another day (Falmouth?). Hopefully the sun will blast and we will get to have a go!! If not, will make do with a saver at appropriate odds (just in case..).

However, the rain should benefit another of this corner's favoured fillies, Theyskens Theory. She won on soft last season and returned in good style recently. She is probably just short of top class, but that may be good enough this afternoon.

What to do?, best to wait until near the off and splitting stakes..!!!

good luck...

Misty to stay?

An intriguing rather than a captivating Oaks at Epsom today. The big guns are out in force with Godolphin's Blue Bunting likely to go off favourite following a somewhat fortuitous 1000 Guineas victory, but she is poor value for a horse that may not enjoy the undulations. The superbly bred Wonder of Wonders impressed last time at Chester, but she may not improve again sufficiently. Ballydoyle's second string, three time Group One winner Misty For Me, is the undoubted class horse in the field but there are justified doubts concerning her ability to get home. The much touted, Havant, failed to convince at Newmarket and her expert connections are factored into the price considering she may prefer it softer.

All in all, it looks a difficult race to call and I am going to tentatively side with Misty For Me, whose speed may overcome stamina difficulties, in what may well be a tactical affair. Best of the outsiders could be Beatrice Aurore, who should be suited by track and going.

enjoy and best of luck...

Sprint Saturday

A veritable feast of racing today with the action coming thick and fast at four grade 1 tracks, Goodwood, Haydock, York and the Curragh. Sprinting is definitely the order of the day and while it should be exciting viewing, it also makes for perilous punting. Thus going to sit back and relax with a cross track sporting yankee; Parisian Pyramid (Goodwood 2.15), Sole Power (Haydock 3.00), Arctic (Curragh 3.10) and Waffle (York 3.40).

The Guineas series moves to Ireland with the 2,000 at the Curragh. A rather modest field but still difficult to call. Dubawi Gold is entitled to be favourite but could find one too good in Dunboyne Express. Planning to attend the 1,000 on Sunday, but this stage, reckon Chrysanthemum is good value. She appears a very likely Pricewise candidate, so therefore it may be worthwhile placing a bet today, rather than waiting for reduced odds tomorrow, particularly with the rain on it's way.

Enjoy.....

Frankel; Freak of Nature

Racing scribes were in diffculty articulating Frankel's spellbinding victory. I have never seen anything like it in watching over 30 years of Newmarket's Classic mile and one wonders what's next!!. Will he stay at Epsom? Time will tell, but seeing as he broke all the rules yesterday, it must be worth pursuing!

Today 1000 Guineas, however looks a much more open affair. The varying strands of form are difficult to assess but going to plump for Ballydoyle's, Misty for Me. Twice a Group One winner last term she looks as she if will be better over further, but her form is as good as any on offer in a tight race.If not successful this afternoon, she ought to be worth following through the season.

Another filly, worth watching is Roger Charlton's, Primevere in the Pretty Polly. Nicely bred and showed ability on her only outing winning in a fast time.

good luck...

Frankel brings Flat to the Fore

The Flat season comes to the fore this week. We have already had the Craven meeting and Frankel's seasonal debut in the Greenham today at Newbury moves things up a notch. Last year's top juvenile should get a good test today from Strong Suit, but it's very difficult to see him being beaten en route to the 2,000 Guineas. The Fillies trial (Fred Darling) looks much more open. However, it's unlikely, that we will see the 1,000 winner, but french import Pontenouvo might be worth a close look. Along with the Spring Cup, the meeting should make for interesting viewing, but going to mark the onset of the new season with a trip to Naas, where amongst others, old friend Inxile runs in the feature (will report on anything notable).

The NH season is beginning to wind down with the first of three staying handicap chases, the Scottish Grand National at Ayr. Poker De Sivola for Ferdy Murphy & Graham Lee must have solid claims (appears to have been laid out for this in typical fashion) and another old friend Lothian Falcon (good second last time) is worth a small bet at long odds.

good luck....

Falmouth Stakes 2010

Today's Falmouth Stakes offers Special Duty the opportunity to land a Group 1 on the track, after freakishly being awarded both Guineas by the stewards. Today's field looks much stronger and she will certainly be tested. Lillie Langtry impressed at Ascot and will hard to beat. Strawberrydaqiuiri has progressed in typical Stoute fashion but lacks enough class, while it would be foolish to ignore the remainder.

A difficult race to call, but nevertheless one to savour and expect the French filly to prevail.

enjoy...

Guineas Weekend

The first classic of the season, the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, is today's highlight. The form book and sustained market support suggest St. Nicholas Abbey will win comfortably. His win in the Racing Post clearly illustrated his ability and it is now a question of whether he has trained on and more pertinently, will he be fully ready on the day, as it would appear The Derby is his primary target. There is a question mark over his stamina for 12 furlongs with his breeding suggesting that 10 furlongs will be his optimum trip. Nonetheless, he showed enough speed at Doncaster and looks very hard to oppose this afternoon. For punting purposes however, evens or 5/4 look unappetising in a 19 runner field and I tentatively put Xtension forward as a value bet (currently 22/1). I had the pleasure of attending the Dewhurst and this one finished close whilst never being overridden. The Guineas also has a habit of having a highly priced placed horse and Fair Trade may be a candidate for this role.

Elsewhere on the card, Sole Power (recent winner) has place claims in the Palace House and Wigmore Hall should back up his recent eyecatching track win.

On Sunday, the fillies take centre stage in the 1000 Guineas. Special Duty is a worthy favourite in an open looking contest. Her Morny form suggests she is well ahead of the field and if improving from her uninspiring seasonal bow, will take all the beating. However it is probably best to wait see how much rain materialises.

good luck....