After an anxious week watching the weather, it's great to see Newbury going ahead with a riveting renewal of one of the season's top chases, The Hennessy Gold Cup. Denman aiming to win for the third time is a particular favourite and while it would thrilling to see him triumph, I fear that he may find one too good. Currently he is an attractive price but all those hard races may have knocked the edge off. Nevertheless his high rating greatly influences the field, allowing some decent prospects (second season chasers) the opportunity to compete carrying very light burdens.
Foremost of these, Weird Al looks the most likely but he is very short in the betting for one so inexperienced. Diamond Harry is another favourite of mine and has long looked the ideal candidate for this race. If jumping proficiently he should go close, but his fencing may be undone by a relentless gallop. I also feel he might be better suited by conceding rather than receiving a weight advantage. Burton Port, another who fits the profile, progressed steadily last season and despite Barry Geraghty's determination to ride off 10 stone, he may be just short of the required class.
Hey Big Spender also comes into reckoning but may not stay. Pandorama travels over from Ireland and although he lacks big field experience has Grade 1 form in the book (beat RSA winner Weapon's Amnesty in a dour struggle at Leopardstown). He probably has the greatest capacity for improvement and with a patient ride, he could be staying on well at the finish.
However the remainder of the field includes a previous winner (Madision de Berlais), and winners of the Welsh Grand National (Dream Alliance), Irish Grand National (Niche Market) and Racing Post Chase (Razor Royale), not to mention Neptune Collonges (3 Grade1s), Taranis (Ryanair Chase), Barbers Shop and the gallant Carruthers. This suggests that a surprise is not out of the question and whatever happens, we will surely will have a strong form template for the division.
In summary, a race to savour but very difficult to call. For punting purposes, going to look for value with Pandorama (10s) and a saver on the glaringly well handicapped Neptune Collonges (20s).
enjoy.........
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