Time for serious deliberations to start with only two weeks to go until Cheltenham. While a bit early to finalise decisions, it is no harm to commence with pondering and mulling over the form. Where better to begin than with the main event which justifiably has hogged all the headlines.
The Gold Cup sees part three of the Denman/Kauto Star saga, although Denman's somewhat lethargic show last time has questioned his chance and opened new intriguing possibilities. Firstly I believe it's best to heed Paul Nicholls' advice that he will be 100% on the day and that AP will be more help than hindrance. However a nagging doubt remains that he stopped too quickly at Newbury for it merely to be explained by lack of fitness. Nevertheless the heart will always rules the head with him and if he is 4/1 at the off, I will find it very difficult to desist.
The presence of Cooldine and Imperial Commander puts the kibosh on a Nicholls 1-2-3 as both have reasonable chances of being involved at the finish. Imperial Commander is bred for the track and his battle with Kauto at Haydock shows he can live with the best (ignore Kempton run). The only negative is the doubt that he will truly get the extra 2 furlongs. Cooldine has no doubts on that score as he probably is the best stayer. If jumping cleanly and living with the pace, he has solid place claims especially after a light campaign.
However, this all ignores Kauto Star who while looks a bit short in the betting but cannot really be opposed. It looked last year that he had peaked but he was better than ever at Kempton and with Ruby on board, he will take all the beating. Whatever the outcome it looks that it will be a great race and one to be relished.
Thoughts on Champion Hurdle and Queen Mother Chase anon.....
cheers!
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