Royal Ascot 2012

Forsaking the Royal meeting this term for the delights of Tuscany. However will be keeping an eye on matters from afar and in particular on the week's nap, Born to Sea in the St. James Palace Stakes. Very well bred with astute connections (Oxx and Murtagh), he appeared to finally to get the hang of things, when running on well in the Irish 2,000 and is the value bet in an open renewal.

enjoy.....

Irish Guineas 2012

The final brace of Guineas take place at the Curragh this weekend. The fine weather will ensure good ground at least and we should be in for fine fare. The 2,000 today is an intriguing contest albeit lacking a potential super miler. Jim Bolger, as his wont, is attempting to defy normal practice by aiming his Dewhurst victor, Parish Hall at this and the Derby next weekend. There is no Camelot to reckon with today and his Group One form entitles him to be a clear favourite, making the 4/1 currently available an attractive bet. Aidan O'Brien has a very strong hand of 3 year old colts this season but none of his representatives convince and with question marks over the Oxx pair, Parish Hall gets the nod.

On Sunday, Homecoming Queen seeks to reprise her stunning Newmarket win. That however, along with her winning form was on soft ground which leads one to surmise that she may be vulnerable. She does not have a lot to contend with from a moderate line up but Yellow Rosebud showed enough at Leopardstown to suggest she may up to the task in a race where her trainer (Dermot Weld) has had plenty of recent success.

enjoy.....

Guineas Weekend 2012

Intriguing renewal of the 2,000 Guineas this afternoon at Newmarket. Plenty of potentially high class colts go to post in what promises to be an informative, but difficult to call contest. Therefore going to focus on how five of the eighteen runners will fare rather than attempting to identify a winner. Here goes:

1) Camelot could well take this en route to the Derby but he is bred for further and represents poor value at current odds (may well be a different story at Epsom however).

2) Power acquitted himself well as a 2 year old but two defeats at Group 1 level suggest he may not be good enough for this and being by Oasis Dancer, could well turn out to be a July Cup candidate.

3) Born to Sea has very strong connections and is priced accordingly. However John Oxx will have him ready for a good run and expect better to come at the Curragh and Royal Ascot.

4) Top Story has only one run (albeit very promising) under his belt. Doubts about the going lessen his chances but he will definitely come on for the experience.

5) Fencing has little chance against Camelot on the book, but his trainer is a master at bringing colts on from these tests and he is one who could progress nicely over the season.

The French contingent are also worth noting particularly with the first three from the Djebel running-Abtaal is probably best of these.

All in all, a race to savour and study. For a bet, will hope to get Born to Sea at 10s or higher, with the summer more in mind than today.

The 1,000 Guineas on Sunday is much more straightforward. Maybe was a top class 2 year old and assuming she has trained on, she will take all the beating in a lop sided contest. One for the watching brief is The Fugue trained by John Gosden.

enjoy....

Sweet on Snow Fairy in Yorkshire Oaks

Perhaps the single most visually impressive performance of the season so far was that of Snow Fairy demolishing the field in the Irish Oaks. Prior to that race, I had my doubts but subsequently vowed to keep on the right side. Today at York, she takes on two very able 4 year old fillies in the Yorkshire Oaks, but with her age allowance, scope for improvement, and finishing thrust, she must have every chance. Sariska ran well again at Epsom behind Fame and Glory but she looked a tad uncomfortable on quickish going in this race last year, while Midday (good winner of Nassau) always appears vulnerable to a good closer. Hibayeeb and Meeznah also merit consideration but in hot race, Snow Fairy is the selection, especially with 3/1 available.

The younger fillies run earlier in an interesting Lowther. Very hard to oppose Maqaasid in this, following her win at Royal Ascot, but at prohibitive odds she is best watched.

Finally another filly to watch out for is John Oxx's Zarebiya in the Galtres. This is a race which the stable repeatedly targets and while this year's entrant is very inexperienced and poor value, she is worthwhile monitoring. Furthermore there is a rather curious jockey booking as I cannot recall Jamie Spencer riding in these colours previously!!

good luck...

Irish 2000

Heading to the Curragh this afternoon for the Irish 2000 Guineas and hoping to spend a pleasant day in good company with the welcome improvement in the weather enhancing matters. The main feature is a very tight affair with many imponderables. Steinbeck looks to be the potential superstar in the field but one wonders if he will be fully primed today and furthermore, I am wary of supporting him at the price particularly as his career so far evokes that of Rip Van Winkle! Canford Cliffs is a smashing horse but I doubt if he will be at his best over the mile here, unless none of the Ballydoyle legions make it a true test. Aidan O'Brien's number two, Fencing Master, (ran well in the Dewhurst, but poorly in the English Guineas) along with Keredari (John Oxx) offer little value and look slightly below Group 1 standard. That leaves us again with Xtension (good run for our money at Newmarket), who I expect to be placed and with luck on the day may land the spoils for Clive Cox. He put in a solid effort for his first outing and although faltering slightly at the dip, he picked up again to run on strongly to suggest he will improve for the stiffer track.

The supporting card looks competitive with an interesting and hopefully informative 2yo race and a hot sprint where Velvet Flicker may go in again.

Across the water, there is a plethora of racing at a selection of top tracks including Goodwood, Haydock and York. It's probably not the day to be trying my luck with the Scoop 6 but one can hardly not be tempted by the bulging pot! Selections (for what it's worth) as follows:

1. Mac Gille Eoin, Parisian Pyramid, 2. Balducci, Huygens, 3. Perpetually, 4. Equiano, 5. Aajel, 6. Discanti

Good luck and enjoy....

Sea The Stars

A reflective rather than a predictive blog on this occasion as it would not have stretched any one's powers to foresee Sea The Stars' thrilling victory at Longchamp and his confirmation as an all time great. The Arc presented a new series of obstacles with the large field, deceptive track, and uncompromising rivals leading him to being pressurised for the first time. Slightly lathered with sweat and pulling hard at the beginning, it appeared that there was a momentary vulnerability. However Mick Kinane on top was coolness personified and positioned his mount perfectly for a winning thrust. It is very rarely that you see a horse being able to produce such speed at the end of a 12 furlong race. True Champ!!

All in all probably a fitting conclusion to a fantastic 3yo campaign and having been on at long odds (Newmarket) and in retrospect, an unbelievable price (Epsom) was viewed with great satisfaction from this quarter. Plaudits must also go to John Oxx for his astute and intelligent management. He along with M.J. have contributed massively to Sea The Stars stellar performances. One question however remains, California or not? A decision best left to connections....



cheers....

St. Legers

John Oxx returns to the limelight with creditable chances in both Legers. Mourayan's credentials can be questioned with the fast going and Mick Kinane's decision to go the Curragh. However in a weakish race, his form lines with Fame and Glory look the strongest and at 8 or 9s offers a bit of value, despite obvious negatives. Mick Kinane rides Alandi in the Irish Leger, but in a good field, All the Aces looks progressive on soft ground and could be the one to upset departing hero, Yeats.

Ballydoyle should have better luck in the top 2yo races. The Champagne Stakes at Doncaster is always a good guide and Aidan O'Brien sends 3 to take on Godolphin's vulnerable favourite Poet's Voice. Of the 3, like the profile of Await the Dream and keen to see how he fares. Alfred Nobel should have too much experience for his rivals in the National Stakes but Prendergast runners should always be respected while Chabal showed a lot of promise last week at Leopardstown.

In a busy day, the big betting race is the Portland Handicap. As usual, it is very competitive, but Intrepid Jack is worth a look (finished well last time at York to show he still has ability and is running off a winning mark).

best of luck.....

Irish Champion

Greatly looking forward all week to going to Leopardstown for the Irish Champion Stakes and with John Oxx giving the nod, should get to see a great race. Sea The Stars is going to have to defy the Ballydoyle legions again, with both Fame and Glory and Mastercraftsman running. While conditions will not be perfect, tactics may have a greater bearing on the outcome. Sea The Stars' half brother, Galileo came a cropper on this day in 2001 when Godolphin's superior tactical awareness give Fantastic Light a crucial 2 lengths on the turn due Richard Hills adroitly moving off the rails. Galileo's pilot that day was M.J. Kinane and I would be surprised if it was not a lesson well learnt. It all adds to the intrigue as both Fame and Glory and Mastercraftsman are genuine Group 1 horses who in another season would be definite winners. Aidan O'Brien was quoted in the week suggesting that they were outfoxed by Kinane at Epsom, but seemingly fails to recognise that Sea The Stars' early high cruising speed allows him to control races. This is the crucial factor and why I expect him to prevail!! As an aside it will interesting to see how Casual Conquest's Arc preparations are coming along (fitted with blinkers this time).

The supporting card includes another Group 1, the Matron Stakes which this year looks a weak renewal. Old friend Rainbow View gets another chance but hard to fancy at evens.

The third Group 1 of the day is at Haydock, the Beftred Sprint. Kieren Fallon will be keenly supported on his return to this level which may skew the market. It is a very competitive field but expect Main Aim (with a drop of rain) to avenge his defeat at Newmarket and land the spoils.

good luck....

Yorkshire Oaks

Day 3 at York sees the fillies take centre stage with Sariska very hard to oppose in the Yorkshire Oaks. Her wins at Epsom and the Curragh plus Midday's success at Goodwood gives her impeccable credentials which should be confirmed at the Knavesmire. The Lowther looks more competitive but expect Ascot winner Lady of the Desert to prevail. However both fillies are too short for a bet so have to look elsewhere on the card for a wager. Tanoura represents John Oxx in the Galtres and based on the connection's record must have a strong chance (unlucky last time), but again offers little value. That leaves us with the big mile handicap in which at least half a dozen, look to have serious chances and at this stage think I will keep my hand in my pocket.

The Ebor saw a great plunge on Changingoftheguard. With any horse surely at least 4/1 to get luck in running or a smooth passage, how did he go off at 15/8??

cheers.....

Stewards Cup

The Stewards Cup at Goodwood is one of racing's greatest spectacles. This year's renewal with a compressed handicap appears more competitive than usual. Despite the random nature of the race due to the downhill track, variable draw bias, and a large field, it is normally won by a horse with a touch of class and a bit in hand. To that end would suggest Genki as the most likely to fit the bill. Under the radar since a disappointing run in the Wokingham, his two recent performances suggest he is good form and ready for a big run. Pearly Wey ran well enough in the Wokingham and with a good record on the course is worth consideration as a saver.

The Group 1 Nassau Stakes is very tight with Sariska's rivals all seeking black type. Intrigued to see John Oxx accept the challenge bringing over Katiyra, who could be very interesting with a drop of rain. She has good form in the book and could go close if improving slightly. Currently 7s on Betfair but may drift to a nice price in a competitive field.

good luck...

Eclipse Stakes 09

Great to have Sea The Stars back in action in the Eclipse and getting his chance to strut his stuff against the older horses. Fully expect him to win from a relatively decent field with possibly the main dangers being the track itself, not to mention "team tactics". It will be very interesting to see what strategy Ballydoyle deploy following Coolmore's baiting and spin over the past few weeks. It was ironic to hear Aidan O'Brien advocating the Irish Derby's superiority shortly after running his best six colts at Epsom. John Oxx's reaction was notable but best to remember that breeding history suggests that the Derby winning post is what matters most. As to the race itself Sea The Stars with the wily MJ on board should have too much for Conduit (best over further), Rip Van Winkle (rumoured unwell), Cima de Triomphe and Twice Over (both not good enough but decent e/w value).

Also at Sandown, Triple Aspect should go in again after showing plenty of potential here 3 weeks ago (a bit short in betting!). The mile handicap looks intriguing with Mirrored obvious choice following fine run at Ascot. However this race usually favours those drawn high and tentatively put Willow Dancer forward as a likely outsider.

Elsewhere, there is an excellent card at Haydock where High Heeled seeks to frank Oaks form. Ground may be too fast for her so will give Take the Hint another chance. Luca Cumani appears to have another one lined up for the Old Newton Cup in Falcativ but it looks very open and going to go with Mezzanisi as a watching interest.

good luck....

Epsom Derby 09

This year's renewal presents an intriguing and fascinating puzzle with question marks hovering over all the leading protagonists. Following yesterday's Group 1s, the track itself is also called into question. What way will the ground ride? Ostensibly good to firm but it favoured yesterday those whose strong suit is stamina! Will moving the rails negate the camber and bring speed into play? Perhaps the most pertinent consideration is what approach will Ballydoyle take? Will they force a strong gallop and risk Rip Van Winkle not getting home or will they pack the field to thwart any manoeuvres?!!!

As to the main contenders, Sea the Stars is the best horse and "if he stays, he wins". However despite the general media consensus that he will get the trip, I have my reservations but willing to place my faith in John Oxx and Michael Kinane's expertise. (11/4, a good price). Of the remainder, Rip van Winkle has the potential to be a superstar but doubtful whether it will materialise today (market should be informative!). He will benefit from Murtagh but to win he will need the run of the race. Nevertheless he will definitely improve for the experience. Fame and Glory may not be agile enough for the track but will have stamina on his side. Dante winner Black Bear Island has a definite chance with the powerful Ryan Moore on top but will need to improve again. Gan Amhras has solid credentials but looks just short of top class (currently poor value @ 7s). Golden Sword looks pick of outsiders having discovered his suitable racing conditions at Chester and is a nice each way price.

In conclusion, I sticking with Sea the Stars and looking forward to a fascinating race and an enjoyable afternoon!!!

good luck....

Saturday Cards 30/5/09

Decent and competitive fields today at three of the major tracks this afternoon. Don't have any strong opinions but would like to put three forward for a bit of interest:

Beacon Lodge up against Main Aim who was very impressive last time but he should be more suited by trip with the stoute horse shaping as a sprinter.

Siren's Gift was beaten by Look Busy last time and despite giving up on her last season may be worth another shot particularly with stable in form.

Yamal had his form boosted last week and should continue on his upward curve.

Best of luck....

PS By the way do Ladbrokes know more than John Oxx? 9/4 suggests they believe Seathestars will stay!!