The Jumps hit top gear today with the first big chase of the season, The Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. The highly regarded Long Run heads the market and looks to establish his credentials as a top flight chaser. He looked spectacular at Kempton, but paradoxically showed his mettle in defeat at the Festival when gamely running on up the hill after jumping moderately. He should have progressed from then and is definitely the most capable horse in the race. All going well he should win, with the only negative being his jockey's inexperience.
However he offers modest value in a competitive field and it may be worthwhile considering the opposition. Great Endeavour looks thrown in on his Festival win but the price is gone and he is a probably a job horse who lacks real experience. Paul Nicholls runs three but none of them look well treated. The J.P. McManus colours (currently on a good run) will be carried by four runners, and while I like Finger on the Pulse, he looks to be carrying too much weight. The John Jo pair are not good enough and the talented Dancing Tornado is too unreliable. Catch Me needs plenty of rain and Mad Max is just too big to win around here. In search of value, that leaves me with old friend, Edgbriar who won in good style last time. He won't mind which conditions pertain and his front running tactics will give us a run for our money. The stable star won today and at 33/1, he is a value each way bet.
good luck....
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