Sunday, October 3, 2010

Duncan to do the slaying this time ????

The highlight of the European flat season, the Prix de l'Arc augmented by a super supporting card takes place at Longchamp today. This year's renewal sees all the big guns represented in an open looking contest. Local reconnaissance reported heavy rain yesterday and suggests that the testing conditions will be the most salient factor.

Workforce is perhaps the horse with the greatest ability but one has to take his well being on trust. Currently little value but worth a bet at 10s or better. Ballydoyle send three, but hard to fancy Fame and Glory (not seen recently) and Cape Blanco (best at 10f), while Midas Touch (should be suited) is not good enough. Godolphin, in good form lately, run last year's third, Cavalryman (disappointing this season), who has solid place claims and looks as he if will benefit from the softer ground.

The Aga Khan has favourite, Behkabad who heads market, but offers little value and the promising Sarafina who may not get home. The other home contenders include Lope de Vega (stamina doubts) and Planteur, who is likely to be a popular selection but does not look good enough either.

In conclusion, the heavy going combined with lack of an outright favourite, and negatives over all the main players, we may have a surprise result and to that end, I expect a big run from Prix Foy winner, Duncan. By Dalakhani, who won this on holding conditions and trained by the shrewd John Gosden, he handled the track well last time and could give his connections due recompense for last year's injustice.

The supporting card is equally compelling with hopefully informative group 1 two year old contests (particularly the fillies races), the Foret which sees Goldikova and Paco Boy re oppose over 7f and the Opera where the unexposed Field Day is of interest.

enjoy and bonne chance....

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