Cheltenham Clues

The big freeze affords us a few moments to reflect on the holiday racing and elicit any pointers for the festival. It was surprising that so much of it went ahead and despite testing conditions, there was plenty to ponder.

The Gold Cup picture could not be clearer with it definitely now being a match. Kauto's performance in winning his fourth consecutive King George by 36 lengths while being current Gold Cup holder, being rated in the 190s suggests that he should be odds on!! But Denman has to be given serious consideration following What a Friend's win at Leopardstown. Kauto is fully entitled to be fav and the 6/4 available looks good value. Equally the 9/4, at which Denman can be backed, especially if AP is on board. Difficult to call it now but looking forward to it greatly. Of the others, Imperial Commander should run well, but even at his best would not be good enough to match the big two. The same applies to Cooldine, who I am sure Willie Mullins won't over extend this season.

The Champion Hurdle picture however is still very open. Solwhit and Go Native clearly enhanced their claims and along with Zaynar look the main players at this stage but expect picture to change regularly between now and March. Even at this stage, impossible to oppose Big Bucks in the World Hurdle. The same applies to Master Minded, who we can expect to recover in time. Recalling his blitzkrieg in 2008, I would not oppose him if he was running on 3 legs. Barbers Shop ran very well in the King George, with his showing indicating that he would be running over his optimum distance in the Ryanair.

In the novice ranks, Dunguib remains the festival banker with nothing aside from Quantitativeeasing showing anything, close to his level. The Triumph picture looks very unclear with Alaivin's defeat, which can be mitigated as Edward O'Grady's string ran generally slightly below their best and the going at Leopardstown was a lot more demanding than it looked. I had the pleasure of seeing Pandorama and Weapon's Amnesty fight out at great finish in the Knight Frank Chase and both looked the type to do well in the RSA, although would have their work cut out to master Punchestowns. Probably the most competitive and intriguing race at this stage is the Arkle. Would Captain Cee Bee have caught Sizing Europe if not falling? Hard to say but these 2 will take all the beating!!

Ante post yankee.....Sizing Europe 6/1, Barbers Shop 7/1, Denman 9/4, Dunguib 6/4,



Happy New Year!!